Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.859055 1.963040 2.071809 2.194429 2.329261 2.473505 2.640159
2025-10-05 1.726426 1.874151 2.035917 2.227583 2.450307 2.703278 3.015732
2025-10-12 1.646032 1.820905 2.018571 2.261245 2.555008 2.904380 3.359707
2025-10-19 1.582512 1.776862 2.002172 2.286932 2.643668 3.085168 3.688987
2025-10-26 1.513022 1.718588 1.961676 2.276123 2.681249 3.199675 3.938968
2025-11-02 1.453651 1.667502 1.924736 2.264292 2.712814 3.304485 4.181903
2025-11-09 1.395555 1.614015 1.880566 2.238516 2.721597 3.376109 4.381608
2025-11-16 1.342853 1.564155 1.837559 2.210333 2.723210 3.435254 4.565895
2025-11-23 1.308295 1.535146 1.819057 2.212382 2.764756 3.552187 4.849295
2025-11-30 1.283467 1.517063 1.813222 2.230192 2.828235 3.704674 5.206456
2025-12-07 1.241967 1.475550 1.774406 2.200031 2.819818 3.746701 5.382591
2025-12-14 1.200574 1.432590 1.731754 2.162039 2.796906 3.763377 5.514922
2025-12-21 1.160171 1.390135 1.688865 2.122626 2.770856 3.775096 5.644059
2025-12-28 1.147667 1.384153 1.694980 2.153187 2.852201 3.966588 6.135001
2026-01-04 1.136511 1.379331 1.702125 2.185062 2.937002 4.170994 6.686348
2026-01-11 1.123512 1.371387 1.704345 2.209355 3.010881 4.363207 7.249231
2026-01-18 1.100109 1.348377 1.684382 2.199133 3.027760 4.455191 7.611329
2026-01-25 1.077743 1.326066 1.664524 2.187944 3.041952 4.542944 7.980051
2026-02-01 1.052498 1.299025 1.636950 2.163557 3.032282 4.584743 8.246719
2026-02-08 1.027823 1.272117 1.608705 2.136882 3.017019 4.614228 8.488567
2026-02-15 1.012870 1.258403 1.599085 2.138822 3.050896 4.742234 9.013408
2026-02-22 1.002963 1.251465 1.599020 2.155679 3.111623 4.929690 9.749133
2026-03-01 0.980634 1.226322 1.571360 2.127128 3.089643 4.944973 9.995084